The dust has just began to settle over the Bihar 2015 Assembly poll verdict. There have been a number of opeds as you'd expect after every election from journalists and commentators on what made Nitish & Lalu the winners and what brought the Modi juggernaut to its knees. I don't intend to write one of those columns here, because to me, the fate of these elections was sealed when the seat sharing for Bihar was arrived at. Whatever these opeds say about Modi wave ebbing, or rising intolerance hurting BJP, or fringe elements damaging BJP's cause with their big mouths or Nitish magic working, or the Lalu factor or positive & negative politics, etc. is really not so impactful.
The real reason for NDA's loss can be depicted in the 2 charts in Livemint's article: "Three electoral lessons from the Bihar verdict" (Link to article) here:
In Lok Sabha 2014 elections, the NDA was fighting a divided 45.06% vote share of JDU, RJD and Congress, etc. with its own 39.46% vote share. Whereas in Assembly 2015 elections, its reduced vote share of 34.1% was against a united share of 44.05%. NDA needed a more than 5% swing of votes in its favor, which even the triumphant Nitish or Laloo has not able to achieve. Yes, there is erosion in BJP's vote share as well as in those of its allies and BJP needs to introspect why it went down. But they knew getting the seat share arithmetic was nearly impossible without this 5% positive swing that was required.
Though I can't claim to understand Bihari people's psyche that well, it would be foolish to claim development agenda won over casteism or communalism. Nitish Kumar might have been a beneficiary of pro-development politics, but perhaps not as much as BJP. MGB however played the caste angle so smartly, that they managed to steal any upswing that BJP could have got. There were several other traps laid down by MGB besides caste, in which the BJP happily got itself entangled in thinking it'll help them. Intolerance, Dadri, etc. were just some of them.
I just want to share my concerns on one of those moves as it worries me a lot because I hate casteism and because it poses a grave threat to development agenda in electoral politics.
This move was actually a master stroke and concerns this chap called Hardik Patel and the Patidar movement in Gujarat.
As it is unfolding day by day, the movement seems to be a well thought out social experimentation by the MGB to weaken BJP in its stronghold, i.e. Gujarat. If you read about the discrete support from Nitish Kumar, Kejriwal, and now open support from Congress to this movement, and then join all the dots, you'll see a master plan emerging. I won't be surprised if Prashant Kishore, who must have understood Gujarat dynamics quite well by now, would be the master mind behind this, possibly along with Ahmed Patel. But I admit, this is just my guess. Earlier, I thought this might just be a plan to distract Modi and Shah from Bihar elections so that they get busy in protecting their home turf.
But now, I feel the plot is even more sinister.
What Modi had successfully done in Gujarat was to weaken the caste based politics. No one can erase casteism yet, not even in Gujarat, but he was successful in giving a stronger voice to the non-Patel public.
Anyone who has stayed in Gujarat for long enough and worked here would know how prosperous and well placed the Patidar community is. You'd know how difficult it is to rise professionally in your field if you are pitted against a Patel (or Patidar), be it in private or public institutions. They are resourceful and united for each other's cause and well being. I may be generalizing, but Patels are the most enterprising lot from Gujarat and "naukari" (service) doesn't appeal to a large section of them. You might actually wonder why would they need reservations in education now. They have set an example of how to set up businesses and grow as a community with a progressive mindset, all the while lending a hand to someone of their own.
I see absolutely no harm in being a well bonded community. But the Patidars go to an extent where the community feeling is discriminatory to others. Power and positions have been misused by them. I will neither elaborate on this, nor won't blame them because any other community in their place would have done the same. We humans (and not just Indians) are like that only.
To Modi's credit, he replaced the Patel bonhomie with a sense of pride for Gujarat. The cause of Gujarat, the need for development and to raise a united voice against Gujarat's insult following Godhra became a stronger voice replacing caste based internal concerns. The Gujarat youth, including the Patels related more to this calling than that of helping just their individual castes and communities. The Patel bonhomie wasn't dead though. It just got superseded by some other cause.
With the Patidar campaign getting stronger just before Bihar elections, the BJP found itself in a tricky position. On one hand, it had to cautiously support Patidars and voice its opposition to reservations to calm down the movement in Gujarat. And on the other hand, BJP's intended 5% upswing had to come from the Dalit or Mahadalit votes, which thanks to these new circumstances, was at severe risk. As if all this was not enough, Mr. Bhagwat voluntarily complied with his remark on reservations. To be fair, given the number of big mouths in BJP, if not Mr. Bhagwat, someone else would have done the honors. The media and the opposition were more than happy to pick up anything on these lines and blow it out of proportion. Well played Mr. Nitish Kumar, Mr. Prashant Kishore and Mr. Ahmed Patel, or whoever planned this! So far, so good.
What upsets me however, is that instead of developmental politics entering into Bihar from Gujarat, the reverse is happening now. The Patidar campaign is getting stronger day by day. To quote Indian Express verbatim, "After Bihar poll results, Patidars vow to ensure BJP rout in Gujarat civic polls". As I write, media is reporting that Prashant Kishore will be actively involved in civic polls slated to happen post Diwali in Gujarat. I saw one Patel leader claiming that BJP has done injustice to his community. Some other Patel said, BJP has committed atrocities on Patidars. Obviously, all these claims are outright false and bunkum. There is no substantiation to any of these claims if one thinks objectively, but hyperbole meets hyperbole now.
And guess what, this is smart politics. Congress couldn't break the Hindu vote supporting BJP in Gujarat. They couldn't plan a come back with a development agenda. So what was their way out? Bring Bihar to Gujarat. Divide the society on caste again. Take it back to the old ages. Being in power is more important than undoing a forward step taken. Not surprisingly, the media will be gloating over an opportunity like this the way they loved discussing Bihar election on caste lines.
I had hoped the Patidar community wouldn't fall into this trap. The economic package offered by the Gujarat Government would have been sufficient to meet their demands. But then, why would they stop themselves here? They were losing their dominance and influence in state politics. They couldn't digest the other castes rubbing shoulders with them. I am not painting all Patels with the same brush, but if a majority of Patidar community hadn't joined the movement, there wouldn't have been a cause for worry for anyone. Now, there indeed is a cause for concern - first for Gujarat, and later for other states as well.
I am not at all wishing the Patels would support Modi. I am also not speaking in favour of BJP, which itself is not innocent in playing communal or caste games. But I am hopelessly wishing people would stop adding fuel to a movement that will ruin the state and eventually other states. I hope they don't fall into this trap laid down by Congress & MGB. I hope they continue insisting for progress and development as they did in the past.
I agree the anti-reservation voice had to rise one day. I myself have been a victim of reservation, but I, like many other fellow Gujaratis and Indians, didn't choose the path taken by Mr. Hardik Patel. I worked harder, like many other Patels did.
Myself being a nobody, this blog is not intended to change the tide, but I hope a few Patidars would see through the damage this movement is doing to the fabric and progress of the nation and that they would decide to stop supporting it. By doing so, they will help avoid bringing Bihar to Gujarat. In fact, they will eventually do immense service to the nation by stopping Congress and the MGB from taking Bihar to the rest of India.
Disclaimer: There are several things good about Bihar. Caste politics is not one of them. In all comments above where I fear taking Bihar to Gujarat and elsewhere, I am referring to only caste politics. I have no disrespect for any one from Bihar. In fact, I have some very good friends belonging to the state, and I respect them a lot. I hope we keep bringing such good people, their intelligence and their ethos to the nation than caste politics.
The real reason for NDA's loss can be depicted in the 2 charts in Livemint's article: "Three electoral lessons from the Bihar verdict" (Link to article) here:
In Lok Sabha 2014 elections, the NDA was fighting a divided 45.06% vote share of JDU, RJD and Congress, etc. with its own 39.46% vote share. Whereas in Assembly 2015 elections, its reduced vote share of 34.1% was against a united share of 44.05%. NDA needed a more than 5% swing of votes in its favor, which even the triumphant Nitish or Laloo has not able to achieve. Yes, there is erosion in BJP's vote share as well as in those of its allies and BJP needs to introspect why it went down. But they knew getting the seat share arithmetic was nearly impossible without this 5% positive swing that was required.
Though I can't claim to understand Bihari people's psyche that well, it would be foolish to claim development agenda won over casteism or communalism. Nitish Kumar might have been a beneficiary of pro-development politics, but perhaps not as much as BJP. MGB however played the caste angle so smartly, that they managed to steal any upswing that BJP could have got. There were several other traps laid down by MGB besides caste, in which the BJP happily got itself entangled in thinking it'll help them. Intolerance, Dadri, etc. were just some of them.
I just want to share my concerns on one of those moves as it worries me a lot because I hate casteism and because it poses a grave threat to development agenda in electoral politics.
This move was actually a master stroke and concerns this chap called Hardik Patel and the Patidar movement in Gujarat.
As it is unfolding day by day, the movement seems to be a well thought out social experimentation by the MGB to weaken BJP in its stronghold, i.e. Gujarat. If you read about the discrete support from Nitish Kumar, Kejriwal, and now open support from Congress to this movement, and then join all the dots, you'll see a master plan emerging. I won't be surprised if Prashant Kishore, who must have understood Gujarat dynamics quite well by now, would be the master mind behind this, possibly along with Ahmed Patel. But I admit, this is just my guess. Earlier, I thought this might just be a plan to distract Modi and Shah from Bihar elections so that they get busy in protecting their home turf.
But now, I feel the plot is even more sinister.
What Modi had successfully done in Gujarat was to weaken the caste based politics. No one can erase casteism yet, not even in Gujarat, but he was successful in giving a stronger voice to the non-Patel public.
Anyone who has stayed in Gujarat for long enough and worked here would know how prosperous and well placed the Patidar community is. You'd know how difficult it is to rise professionally in your field if you are pitted against a Patel (or Patidar), be it in private or public institutions. They are resourceful and united for each other's cause and well being. I may be generalizing, but Patels are the most enterprising lot from Gujarat and "naukari" (service) doesn't appeal to a large section of them. You might actually wonder why would they need reservations in education now. They have set an example of how to set up businesses and grow as a community with a progressive mindset, all the while lending a hand to someone of their own.
I see absolutely no harm in being a well bonded community. But the Patidars go to an extent where the community feeling is discriminatory to others. Power and positions have been misused by them. I will neither elaborate on this, nor won't blame them because any other community in their place would have done the same. We humans (and not just Indians) are like that only.
To Modi's credit, he replaced the Patel bonhomie with a sense of pride for Gujarat. The cause of Gujarat, the need for development and to raise a united voice against Gujarat's insult following Godhra became a stronger voice replacing caste based internal concerns. The Gujarat youth, including the Patels related more to this calling than that of helping just their individual castes and communities. The Patel bonhomie wasn't dead though. It just got superseded by some other cause.
With the Patidar campaign getting stronger just before Bihar elections, the BJP found itself in a tricky position. On one hand, it had to cautiously support Patidars and voice its opposition to reservations to calm down the movement in Gujarat. And on the other hand, BJP's intended 5% upswing had to come from the Dalit or Mahadalit votes, which thanks to these new circumstances, was at severe risk. As if all this was not enough, Mr. Bhagwat voluntarily complied with his remark on reservations. To be fair, given the number of big mouths in BJP, if not Mr. Bhagwat, someone else would have done the honors. The media and the opposition were more than happy to pick up anything on these lines and blow it out of proportion. Well played Mr. Nitish Kumar, Mr. Prashant Kishore and Mr. Ahmed Patel, or whoever planned this! So far, so good.
What upsets me however, is that instead of developmental politics entering into Bihar from Gujarat, the reverse is happening now. The Patidar campaign is getting stronger day by day. To quote Indian Express verbatim, "After Bihar poll results, Patidars vow to ensure BJP rout in Gujarat civic polls". As I write, media is reporting that Prashant Kishore will be actively involved in civic polls slated to happen post Diwali in Gujarat. I saw one Patel leader claiming that BJP has done injustice to his community. Some other Patel said, BJP has committed atrocities on Patidars. Obviously, all these claims are outright false and bunkum. There is no substantiation to any of these claims if one thinks objectively, but hyperbole meets hyperbole now.
And guess what, this is smart politics. Congress couldn't break the Hindu vote supporting BJP in Gujarat. They couldn't plan a come back with a development agenda. So what was their way out? Bring Bihar to Gujarat. Divide the society on caste again. Take it back to the old ages. Being in power is more important than undoing a forward step taken. Not surprisingly, the media will be gloating over an opportunity like this the way they loved discussing Bihar election on caste lines.
I had hoped the Patidar community wouldn't fall into this trap. The economic package offered by the Gujarat Government would have been sufficient to meet their demands. But then, why would they stop themselves here? They were losing their dominance and influence in state politics. They couldn't digest the other castes rubbing shoulders with them. I am not painting all Patels with the same brush, but if a majority of Patidar community hadn't joined the movement, there wouldn't have been a cause for worry for anyone. Now, there indeed is a cause for concern - first for Gujarat, and later for other states as well.
I am not at all wishing the Patels would support Modi. I am also not speaking in favour of BJP, which itself is not innocent in playing communal or caste games. But I am hopelessly wishing people would stop adding fuel to a movement that will ruin the state and eventually other states. I hope they don't fall into this trap laid down by Congress & MGB. I hope they continue insisting for progress and development as they did in the past.
I agree the anti-reservation voice had to rise one day. I myself have been a victim of reservation, but I, like many other fellow Gujaratis and Indians, didn't choose the path taken by Mr. Hardik Patel. I worked harder, like many other Patels did.
Myself being a nobody, this blog is not intended to change the tide, but I hope a few Patidars would see through the damage this movement is doing to the fabric and progress of the nation and that they would decide to stop supporting it. By doing so, they will help avoid bringing Bihar to Gujarat. In fact, they will eventually do immense service to the nation by stopping Congress and the MGB from taking Bihar to the rest of India.
Disclaimer: There are several things good about Bihar. Caste politics is not one of them. In all comments above where I fear taking Bihar to Gujarat and elsewhere, I am referring to only caste politics. I have no disrespect for any one from Bihar. In fact, I have some very good friends belonging to the state, and I respect them a lot. I hope we keep bringing such good people, their intelligence and their ethos to the nation than caste politics.
